Australia: Barley crop forecast at up to 8.5 mln tonnes this year
ABARES adjusted Australia’s’ barley crop figure to 8.31 mln tonnes, of which 4.92 mln tonnes in Western Australia.
However, H. M. Gauger GmbH report that Western Australia’s statistics are larger: 8.5 mln tonnes for the country and 5.135 mln tonnes (plus 35%) for Western Australia alone.
Heat and drought continued all along the east coast, at present the sorghum crop is expected to be 1.3 mln tonnes, down from an earlier forecast of 2.1 mln tonnes. There is a steady flow of feed wheat and barley from west to east coast ports to replace destroyed grain crops and pastures. Feed barley demand in the country may even reach 3.5 to 4.0 mln tonnes, the H. M. Gauger GmbH analysts said.
The inexplicable Chinese dumping investigation has created a very unusual situation for the Australian market, the temporary loss of its No. 1 customer. The investigation was announced in November, a deposit bond till the end of investigation may be announced shortly (56% of invoice value?).
Meantime a maximum of barley was shipped from Australia to China, in December 890 thousand tonnes of all grades, but clearly destined to the malting industry. The total of tax-free shipments may reach 1.3 mln tonnes. It will still leave Australia with an unsold surplus of 1-2 mln tonnes of barley. Markets reacted strongly, malting barley FOB Western Australia ports is quoted at USD225,- per tonne.
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